Abstract
Introduction
Diabetes is a serious and increasing global health burden and estimates of prevalence
are essential for appropriate allocation of resources and monitoring of trends.
Methods
We conducted a literature search of studies reporting the age-specific prevalence
for diabetes and used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to systematically select studies
to generate estimates for 219 countries and territories. Estimates for countries without
available source data were modelled from pooled estimates of countries that were similar
in regard to geography, ethnicity, and economic development. Logistic regression was
applied to generate smoothed age-specific prevalence estimates for adults 20–79 years
which were then applied to population estimates for 2013 and 2035.
Results
A total of 744 data sources were considered and 174 included, representing 130 countries.
In 2013, 382 million people had diabetes; this number is expected to rise to 592 million
by 2035. Most people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries and these
will experience the greatest increase in cases of diabetes over the next 22 years.
Conclusion
The new estimates of diabetes in adults confirm the large burden of diabetes, especially
in developing countries. Estimates will be updated annually including the most recent,
high-quality data available.
Keywords
To read this article in full you will need to make a payment
Subscribe to Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice
Already a print subscriber? Claim online access
Already an online subscriber? Sign in
Register: Create an account
Institutional Access: Sign in to ScienceDirect
References
- Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010; 87: 4-14
- IDF Diabetes Atlas: global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2011 and 2030.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2011; 94: 311-321
- Diabetes Atlas.1st ed. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium2000
- Diabetes Atlas.2nd ed. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium2003
- Diabetes Atlas.3rd ed. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium2006
- IDF Diabetes Atlas.4th ed. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium2009
- IDF Diabetes Atlas.5th ed. International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium2011
- The International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas methodology for estimating global and national prevalence of diabetes in adults.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2011; 94: 322-332
- Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process.Int J Serv Sci. 2008; 1: 83-97
- R: a language and environment for statistical computing.R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria2012 (Available from: http://www.R-project.org/ [Internet])
- Global estimates of undiagnosed diabetes in adults.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014; 103: 150-160
- Age standardization of rates: a new WHO standard.World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland2001 (Report No.: 31)
- Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in a rural community of Angola.Diabetol Metab Syndr. 2010; 2: 63
- Nationwide prevalence study of hypertension and related non-communicable diseases in The Gambia.Trop Med Int Heal. 1997; 2: 1039-1048
- Malawi STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2009.World Health Organization, Geneva2010 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/malawi/en/index.html [Internet])
- Prevalence of diabetes mellitus in the adult population at Cotonou, Benin.Med Mal Metab. 2012; 6: 167-169
- Benin STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2008.2013 (Available from: http://ghdx.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/record/benin-steps-noncommunicable-disease-risk-factors-survey-2008 [cited 05.08.13] [Internet])
- Diabetes in Mozambique: prevalence, management and healthcare challenges.Diabetes Metab. 2011; 37: 237-244
- World Health Organization, Geneva2012 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2010STEPS_Report_Togo_FR.pdf [Internet])
- Zimbabwe – STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2005.World Health Organization, Geneva2005 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/zimbabwe/en/index.html [Internet])
- Diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in rural and urban populations in Futa Jallon (Guinea): prevalence and associated risk factors.Diabetes Metab. 2007; 33: 114-120
- Cameroon Burden of Diabetes (CamBoD) Project: Second Survey Report, 2007.2011
- Prevalence of glucose intolerance and associated risk factors in rural and urban populations of different ethnic groups in Kenya.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2009; 84: 303-310
- Niger – STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2007.World Health Organization, Geneva2008 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2007_STEPS_Report_Niger.pdf [Internet])
- Type 2 diabetes in Mauritania: prevalence of the undiagnosed diabetes, influence of family history and maternal effect.Prim Care Diabetes. 2013; 7: 19-24
- Tanzania STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2012.World Health Organization, Geneva2012 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/tanzania/en/index.html [Internet])
- Prevalence of type 2 diabetes and other cardiovascular risk factors in Mayotte in 2008: the MAYDIA study.Diabetes Metab. 2011; 37: 201-207
- Prevalence and risk factors of diabetes mellitus in the rural region of Mali (West Africa): a practical approach.Diabetologia. 1987; 30: 859-862
- Diabetes and other disorders of glycemia in a rural South African community: prevalence and associated risk factors.Diabetes Care. 2008; 31: 1783-1788
- Rising diabetes prevalence among urban-dwelling black South Africans.PLoS One. 2012; 7: e43336
- European Health Interview Survey Lithuania.Eurostat, Brussels2008 (Available from: http://www.osp.stat.gov.lt/documents/10180/280828/Gyvsveik_tyrimas_e.pdf/d505cd9c-ecf3-4345-b5b8-17aa550157dc [Internet])
- Incidence of diabetes in the Polish population: results of the Multicenter Polish Population Health Status Study – WOBASZ.Pol Arch Med Wewn. 2011; 121: 156-163
- Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in northern populations of Siberia.Int J Circumpolar Health. 2001; 60: 205-210
- European Health Interview Survey Latvia.Eurostat, Brussels2008 (Available from: http://www.csb.gov.lv/en/notikumi/results-survey-health-latvia-s-population-27174.html [Internet])
- Enquête de santé, 2008. Rapport VI – La Santé des Personnes Agées.Institut Scientifique de Santé Publique, Bruxelles2010 (Available from: http://www.iph.fgov.be/epidemio/epifr/CROSPFR/HISFR/his08fr/r3/3_contactsmedecingeneraliste_gp_report3_fr.pdf [Internet])
- European Health Interview Survey Czech Republic.Eurostat, Brussels2008 (Available from: http://www.uzis.cz/publikace/evropske-vyberove-setreni-zdravi-ceske-republice-ehis-2008 [Internet])
- A first national prevalence estimate of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes in France in 18- to 74-year-old individuals: the French Nutrition and Health Survey 2006/2007.Diabet Med. 2011; 28: 583-589
- Prevalence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus in the French general population: the INSTANT study.Diabetes Metab. 2009; 35: 25-31
- Prevalence of type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in the middle-aged population of three French regions – the MONICA study 1995–97.Diabetes Metab. 2001; 27: 347-358
- Prevalence of known diabetes in German adults aged 25–69 years: results from national health surveys over 15 years.Diabet Med. 2009; 26: 655-658
- Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and obesity in the general adult population of Greece: a door-to-door epidemiological study.Diabet Med. 2009; 26: 451-452
- Prevalence rate of diabetes mellitus and impaired fasting glycemia in Hungary: cross-sectional study on nationally representative sample of people aged 20–69 years.Croat Med J. 2010; 51: 151-156
- Prevalence of diabetes in a large, nationally representative population sample in Hungary.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2008; 81: e5-e8
- Prevalence estimates for chronic diseases in Italy: exploring the differences between self-report and primary care databases.J Public Health Med. 2003; 25: 254-257
- Condizioni di salute, fattori di rischio ricorso ai servizi sanitari Anno 2005.Instituto nazionale di statistica, Roma2007 (Available from: http://www3.istat.it/salastampa/comunicati/non_calendario/20070302_00/testointegrale.pdf [Internet])
- POLS Health Interview Survey.Statistics Netherlands, Den Haag2007 (Available from: http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/gezondheid-welzijn/methoden/dataverzameling/korte-onderzoeksbeschrijvingen/health-survey-from2010-kob.htm [Internet])
- First diabetes prevalence study in Portugal: PREVADIAB study.Diabet Med. 2010; 27: 879-881
- European Health Interview Survey Romania.Eurostat, Brussels2008
- Prevalence of diabetes in Bulgaria and the significance of the risk factors: age, obesity and family history.Endocrinologia. 2006; 7: 42-49
- European Health Interview Survey Bulgaria.Eurostat, Brussels2008
- Twelve-year trends in the prevalence and risk factors of diabetes and prediabetes in Turkish adults.Eur J Epidemiol. 2013; 28: 169-180
- Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose regulation in Spain: the Diabetes study.Diabetologia. 2012; 55: 88-93
- Living Conditions Surveys (ULF/SILC) – Statistics Sweden 2004.Statistiska Centralbyrån, Stockholm2006 (Available from: http://www.scb.se/Pages/Product.aspx?id=1 [Internet])
- Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the southwest Albanian adult population.Rural Remote Health. 2007; 7: 744
- Increasing socio-economic inequality in type 2 diabetes prevalence – repeated cross-sectional surveys in England 1994–2006.Eur J Public Health. 2011; 21: 484-490
- Health Survey for England – 2004.Health and Social Care Information Centre, LeedsJune 2010 (Available from: http://www.hscic.gov.uk/pubs/hse04ethnic [Internet])
- Undiagnosed diabetes – data from the English longitudinal study of ageing.Diabet Med. 2009; 26: 679-685
- Glucose intolerance and associated factors in the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan.Diabet Med. 1998; 15: 1052-1062
- Diabetes mellitus in an urban Palestinian population: prevalence and associated factors.East Mediterr Heal J Rev Santé Méditerranée Orient. 2001; 7: 67-78
- Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in a rural Palestinian population.East Mediterr Heal J Rev Santé Méditerranée Orient. 2000; 6: 1039-1045
- Republic of Iraq, Iraq Family Health Survey Report IFHS 2006/7.Ministry of Health, 2008 (Available from: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2008/pr02/2008_iraq_family_health_survey_report.pdf [Internet])
- Iraq STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2006.World Health Organization, Geneva2006 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/IraqSTEPSReport2006.pdf [Internet])
- Diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance in Jordan: prevalence and associated risk factors.J Intern Med. 1998; 244: 317-323
- Prevalence of selected chronic, noncommunicable disease risk factors in Jordan: results of the 2007 Jordan Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey.Prev Chronic Dis. 2012; 9: E25
- Jordan STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2004.World Health Organization, Geneva2004 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/JordanSTEPSReport.pdf [Internet])
- Obesity and diabetes in Jordan: findings from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system, 2004.Prev Chronic Dis. 2008; 5: A17
- Prevalence of diabetes in Pakistan.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2007; 76: 219-222
- Prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and glucose intolerance in the Setif area (Algeria).Diabetes Metab. 2001; 27: 164-171
- Algeria STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2003.World Health Organization, Geneva2005
- Egypt STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2011–2012.World Health Organization, Geneva2012 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2011-2012_Egypt_FactSheet.pdf [Internet])
- Third national Surveillance of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases (SuRFNCD-2007) in Iran: methods and results on prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, obesity, central obesity, and dyslipidemia.BMC Public Health. 2009; 9: 167
- Islamic Republic of Iran STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2007.World Health Organization, Geneva2007 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2007STEPSreportIran.pdf [Internet])
- Prevalence of the main cardiovascular risk factors in Morocco: results of a National Survey, 2000.J Hypertens. 2003; 21: 897-903
- Diabetes mellitus type 2 and other chronic non-communicable diseases in the central region, Saudi Arabia (Riyadh cohort 2): a decade of an epidemic.BMC Med. 2011; 9: 76
- Diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia.Saudi Med J. 2004; 25: 1603-1610
- Diabetes mellitus, hypertension and obesity – common multifactorial disorders in Saudis.East Mediterr Heal J Rev Santé Méditerranée Orient. 1999; 5: 1236-1242
- Prevalence of glucose intolerance in urban and rural communities in Saudi Arabia.Diabet Med. 1997; 14: 595-602
- Saudi Arabia – STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2005.World Health Organization, Geneva2005 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2005_SaudiArabia_STEPS_Report_EN.pdf [Internet])
- The global diabetes pandemic: the Tunisian experience.Eur J Clin Nutr. 2007; 61: 160-165
- Glucose intolerance and associated factors in the multi-ethnic population of the United Arab Emirates: results of a national survey.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2005; 69: 188-195
- Report from the National Diabetes Surveillance System: Diabetes in Canada, 2009: Table of Contents – National Diabetes Surveillance System – Public Health Agency of Canada.Public Health Agency of Canada Government of Canada, February 2009 (Available from: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/2009/ndssdic-snsddac-09/index-eng.php [Internet])
- Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2012. Resultados nacionales Primera edición.Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Mexico2012
- NHANES – National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Homepage.2011-2012 (Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes.htm [cited 05.08.13] [Internet])
- Prevalence of diabetes, obesity, hypertension and hyperlipidemia in the central area of Argentina.Diabetes Metab. 2004; 30: 335-339
- High prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in urban Latin America: the CARMELA study.Diabet Med. 2009; 26: 864-871
- Risk and protection factors for chronic non-communicable diseases by telephone survey – VIGITEL-2009.Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2011; 14: 90-102
Ministry of Health, Chile. Encuesta nacional de salud, 2009–2010.
- Colombia STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2010.World Health Organization, Geneva2010 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/2010_STEPS_Survey_Colombia.pdf [Internet])
- Estudio de los factores de riesgo cardiovasculary sindrome metabolico en la republica dominicana – EFRICARD II.2007 (Available from: http://www.arssenasa.gov.do/index/Documentos/ESTUDIO_EFRICARD%20II.pdf [Internet])
- The Central America Diabetes Initiative (CAMDI): Survey of Diabetes, Hypertension and Chronic Disease Risk Factors.Pan American Health Organization, Belize, San José, San Salvador, Guatemala City, Managua and Tegucigalpa Washington, DC2011 (Available from: http://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?gid=16710&option=com_docman&task=doc_view [Internet])
- Prevalencia de diabetes mellitus auto-reportada en Costa Rica, 1998.Acta Med Costarric. 2009; 46 (Available from: http://actamedica.medicos.cr/index.php/Acta_Medica/article/view/161 [cited 16.10.13] [Internet])
- Bangladesh STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2010.World Health Organization, Geneva2010 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/bangladesh/en/index.html [Internet])
- Prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance) in urban and rural India: phase I results of the Indian Council of Medical Research-INdia DIABetes (ICMR-INDIAB) study.Diabetologia. 2011; 54: 3022-3027
- Hyperglycemia, glucose intolerance, hypertension and socioeconomic position in eastern Nepal.Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2011; 42: 197-207
- The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and impaired fasting glucose in semi-urban population of Nepal.Nepal Med Coll J. 2007; 9: 154-156
- High prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glycaemia in urban Nepal.Diabet Med. 2003; 20: 170-171
- Prevalence and projections of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adults in Sri Lanka – Sri Lanka Diabetes, Cardiovascular Study (SLDCS).Diabet Med. 2008; 25: 1062-1069
- Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and obesity: baseline findings of a population based survey in four provinces in Sri Lanka.Ceylon Med J. 2005; 50: 62-70
- Australian Health Survey 2011–2012 First Results.Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012 (Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/4364.0.55.001main+features12011-12 [Internet])
- Cambodia Marshall Islands STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2010.World Health Organization, Geneva2010 (Available from: http://www.univ-sante.edu.kh/mekong_sante_2011/download/ncd/2-001.pdf [Internet])
- Increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Chinese adults in Shanghai.Diabetes Care. 2012; 35: 1028-1030
- Prevalence of diabetes among men and women in China.N Engl J Med. 2010; 362: 1090-1101
- Cardiovascular disease risk factor patterns and their implications for intervention strategies in Vietnam.Int J Hypertens. 2012; 2012: 560397
- Prevalence of hypertension and its associated factors in the adult population in Yangon Division, Myanmar.Asia Pac J Public Health. 2011; 23: 496-506
- Prevalence and determinants of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in Indonesia (a part of basic health research/Riskesdas).Acta Med Indones. 2009; 41: 169-174
- National Health and Nutrition Survey Japan, 2007.Ministry of Health, 2007 (Available from: http://www0.nih.go.jp/eiken/english/research/pdf/nhns2007.pdf [Internet])
- Prevalence of diabetes in the Malaysian National Health Morbidity Survey III 2006.Med J Malaysia. 2010; 65: 180-186
- Malaysia STEPS Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors Survey 2002.World Health Organization, Geneva2006 (Available from: http://www.who.int/chp/steps/malaysia/en/index.html [Internet])
- Variation in the prevalence, awareness, and control of diabetes in a multiethnic population: a nationwide population study in Malaysia.Asia Pac J Public Health. 2010; 22: 194-202
- Prevalence of atherosclerosis-related risk factors and diseases in the Philippines.J Epidemiol Jpn. 2012; 22: 440-447
- Prevalence and management of diabetes in Korean adults: Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1998–2005.Diabetes Care. 2009; 32: 2016-2020
- Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Korea: Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey 2001.Diabetes Care. 2006; 29: 226-231
- Gender differences in trends in diabetes prevalence from 1993 to 2008 in Taiwan.Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010; 90: 358-364
- Prevalence and control of diabetes in Chinese adults.J Am Med Assoc. 2013; 310: 948-959
- Global burden of diabetes, 1995–2025: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections.Diabetes Care. 1998; 21: 1414-1431
- Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030.Diabetes Care. 2004; 27: 1047-1053
World Bank. Country and Lending Groups, Available from: http://data.worldbank.org/about/countryclassifications/country-and-lending-groups [cited 17.09.13].[Internet].
Article Info
Identification
Copyright
© 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc.
