Abstract
Introduction
Methods
Results
Conclusion
Keywords
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1 Statistical methods
3. Results
Country/territory | Prevalence adjusted to the national population (%) | Prevalence adjusted to the world population (%) | Diabetes cases (20–79) in 1000s | Mean annual increment (000s) | Proportional change in adult population from 2013 to 2035 (%) | Proportional change in number of people with diabetes from 2013 to 2035 (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 2035 | 2013 | 2035 | 2013 | 2035 | ||||
AFR | |||||||||
Angola | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 199 | 458 | 12 | 112.6 | 130.5 |
Burkina Faso | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 238 | 505 | 12 | 104.7 | 112.3 |
Cameroon | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 498 | 1082 | 27 | 89.7 | 117.3 |
Cote d’Ivoire | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 502 | 965 | 21 | 74.2 | 92.5 |
Democratic Republic of the Congo | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 1594 | 3601 | 91 | 95.2 | 125.9 |
Ethiopia | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 1852 | 4418 | 117 | 103.5 | 138.5 |
Ghana | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 440 | 819 | 17 | 70.2 | 86.1 |
Kenya | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 749 | 1746 | 45 | 91.1 | 133.0 |
Madagascar | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 352 | 739 | 18 | 101.1 | 109.8 |
Malawi | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 372 | 802 | 20 | 103.7 | 115.3 |
Mozambique | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 278 | 588 | 14 | 88.0 | 111.3 |
Niger | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 306 | 782 | 22 | 136.9 | 155.3 |
Nigeria | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3922 | 8160 | 193 | 89.8 | 108.1 |
South Africa | 8.3 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 2646 | 3860 | 55 | 22.4 | 45.9 |
Tanzania (United Republic of) | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 1707 | 3815 | 96 | 102.9 | 123.5 |
Uganda | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 625 | 1668 | 47 | 126.5 | 166.9 |
Zimbabwe | 8.8 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 601 | 1256 | 30 | 86.0 | 109.1 |
EUR | |||||||||
Belarus | 6.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 445 | 460 | 1 | −13.1 | 3.4 |
Belgium | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 515 | 604 | 4 | 3.6 | 17.2 |
Czech Republic | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 756 | 872 | 5 | −1.4 | 15.4 |
France | 7.5 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3375 | 3961 | 27 | 7.1 | 17.4 |
Germany | 11.9 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 7560 | 8109 | 25 | −9.3 | 7.3 |
Greece | 7.0 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 585 | 695 | 5 | −3.4 | 18.8 |
Hungary | 7.6 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 573 | 591 | 1 | −8.1 | 3.1 |
Italy | 7.9 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3626 | 4354 | 33 | −2.9 | 20.1 |
Kazakhstan | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 526 | 754 | 10 | 19.9 | 43.4 |
Netherlands | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 914 | 1101 | 8 | 0.2 | 20.4 |
Poland | 6.5 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 1880 | 2133 | 12 | −6.8 | 13.5 |
Portugal | 13.0 | 15.8 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 1032 | 1233 | 9 | −2.0 | 19.5 |
Romania | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 851 | 960 | 5 | −9.9 | 12.8 |
Russian Federation | 10.0 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 10,924 | 11,195 | 12 | −11.3 | 2.5 |
Serbia | 12.4 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 872 | 923 | 2 | −11.2 | 5.8 |
Spain | 10.8 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 3791 | 5179 | 63 | 2.8 | 36.6 |
Sweden | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 439 | 498 | 3 | 8.7 | 13.5 |
Turkey | 14.6 | 18.5 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 7043 | 11,786 | 216 | 32.3 | 67.3 |
Ukraine | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1044 | 969 | −3 | −17.6 | −7.2 |
United Kingdom | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2975 | 3619 | 29 | 8.5 | 21.7 |
Uzbekistan | 5.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 881 | 1734 | 39 | 39.1 | 96.9 |
MENA | |||||||||
Afghanistan | 6.3 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 795 | 1842 | 48 | 120.0 | 131.8 |
Algeria | 6.6 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 1640 | 2889 | 57 | 38.8 | 76.2 |
Egypt | 15.6 | 18.6 | 16.8 | 17.7 | 7511 | 13,073 | 253 | 46.0 | 74.1 |
Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 4396 | 8396 | 182 | 30.5 | 91.0 |
Iraq | 7.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 1226 | 2804 | 72 | 94.5 | 128.7 |
Morocco | 7.3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 1491 | 2508 | 46 | 33.9 | 68.2 |
Pakistan | 6.8 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 6713 | 12,798 | 277 | 59.4 | 90.7 |
Saudi Arabia | 20.2 | 27.1 | 23.9 | 24.5 | 3651 | 7499 | 175 | 53.4 | 105.4 |
Sudan | 7.7 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 1402 | 2904 | 68 | 85.1 | 107.1 |
Syrian Arab Republic | 7.4 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 869 | 1902 | 47 | 75.0 | 118.9 |
Tunisia | 9.2 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 686 | 1130 | 20 | 24.5 | 64.8 |
United Arab Emirates | 10.0 | 23.1 | 19.0 | 19.4 | 746 | 2575 | 83 | 49.8 | 245.3 |
Yemen | 6.1 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 708 | 1633 | 42 | 88.7 | 130.6 |
NAC | |||||||||
Canada | 10.2 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 2638 | 3463 | 37 | 14.3 | 31.3 |
Mexico | 11.8 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 8723 | 15,684 | 316 | 39.4 | 79.8 |
United States of America | 10.9 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 24,402 | 29,718 | 242 | 14.8 | 21.8 |
SACA | |||||||||
Argentina | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 1608 | 2223 | 28 | 23.3 | 38.2 |
Brazil | 9.0 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 11,934 | 19,223 | 331 | 24.4 | 61.1 |
Chile | 10.4 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 1254 | 1841 | 27 | 20.1 | 46.8 |
Colombia | 7.1 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 2135 | 3340 | 55 | 36.2 | 56.4 |
Cuba | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 814 | 1022 | 9 | −3.7 | 25.5 |
Ecuador | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 530 | 850 | 15 | 46.8 | 60.4 |
Guatemala | 9.0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 661 | 1376 | 32 | 90.6 | 108.1 |
Peru | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 786 | 1280 | 22 | 40.9 | 62.8 |
Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) | 6.6 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 1232 | 2068 | 38 | 41.5 | 67.9 |
SEA | |||||||||
Bangladesh | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 5089 | 10,916 | 265 | 44.7 | 114.5 |
India | 8.6 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 65,076 | 109,028 | 1998 | 37.0 | 67.5 |
Nepal | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 674 | 1253 | 26 | 54.2 | 85.8 |
Sri Lanka | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 1128 | 1553 | 19 | 16.9 | 37.7 |
WP | |||||||||
Australia | 10.0 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 1649 | 2312 | 30 | 24.1 | 40.2 |
Cambodia | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 221 | 445 | 10 | 48.7 | 101.1 |
China | 9.6 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 98,407 | 142,663 | 2012 | 7.3 | 45.0 |
Democratic People's Republic of Korea | 7.3 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 1252 | 1732 | 22 | 13.6 | 38.4 |
Indonesia | 5.6 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 8554 | 14,152 | 254 | 37.8 | 65.4 |
Japan | 7.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 7204 | 6722 | −22 | −14.2 | −6.7 |
Malaysia | 10.1 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 1913 | 3299 | 63 | 42.8 | 72.4 |
Myanmar | 5.7 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 1989 | 3438 | 66 | 23.6 | 72.9 |
Philippines | 6.0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3256 | 6014 | 125 | 56.3 | 84.7 |
Republic of Korea | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3324 | 4511 | 54 | 5.6 | 35.7 |
Taiwan | 9.8 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 1721 | 2299 | 26 | −0.3 | 33.6 |
Thailand | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3151 | 4287 | 52 | 4.8 | 36.1 |
Viet Nam | 5.4 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3299 | 6338 | 138 | 25.2 | 92.1 |
IDF Region | Country | Data source(s) |
---|---|---|
Africa (AFR) | ||
Angola | Evaristo-Neto et al. [13] | |
Burkina Faso | Gambia [14] , Malawi [15] , Benin 16 , 17 , Mozambique [18] , Togo [19] , Zimbabwe [20] , Guinea [21] | |
Cameroon | CamBoD Project [22] | |
Côte d’Ivoire | Cameroon [22] | |
Democratic Republic of the Congo | Kenya [23] , Niger [24] , Mauritania [25] , Tanzania [26] , Comoros [27] , Mali [28] | |
Ethiopia | Kenya [23] , Niger [24] , Mauritania [25] , Tanzania [26] , Comoros [27] , Mali [28] | |
Ghana | Gambia [14] , Malawi [15] , Benin 16 , 17 , Mozambique [18] , Togo [19] , Zimbabwe [20] , Guinea [21] | |
Kenya | Christensen et al. [23] | |
Madagascar | Gambia [14] , Malawi [15] , Benin 16 , 17 , Mozambique [18] , Togo [19] , Zimbabwe [20] , Guinea [21] | |
Mozambique | Silva-Matos et al. [18] | |
Niger | Niger STEPs survey [24] | |
Nigeria | Cameroon [22] | |
South Africa | Motala et al. [29] , Peer et al. [30] | |
Uganda | Kenya [23] , Niger [24] , Mauritania [25] , Tanzania [26] , Comoros [27] , Mali [28] | |
Tanzania (United Republic of) | Tanzania STEPs survey [26] | |
Zimbabwe | Zimbabwe STEPs survey [20] | |
Europe (EUR) | ||
Belarus | Lithuania [31] , Poland [32] , Russian Federation, [33] , Latvia [34] | |
Belgium | van der Heyden et al. [35] | |
Czech Republic | Czech Republic Health Survey [36] | |
France | Bonaldi et al. [37] , Bringer et al. [38] , Gourdy et al. [39] | |
Germany | Heidemann et al. [40] | |
Greece | Tentolouris et al. [41] | |
Hungary | Jermendy et al. [42] , Vamos et al. [43] | |
Italy | Cricelli et al. [44] , Italian health survey [45] | |
Netherlands | Netherlands Health Interview Survey [46] | |
Poland | Polakowska and Piotrowski [33] | |
Portugal | Gardete-Correia et al. [47] | |
Romania | Romanian Health Interview Survey [48] | |
Russian Federation | Dogadin et al. [33] | |
Serbia | Romania [48] , Bulgaria 49 , 50 , Turkey [51] | |
Spain | Soriguer et al. [52] | |
Sweden | Sweden Living Conditions Survey [53] | |
Turkey | Satman et al. [51] | |
Ukraine | Albania [54] | |
United Kingdom | Imkampe and Gulliford [55] , Health Survey for England [56] , Pierce et al. [57] | |
Uzbekistan | King et al. [58] | |
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) | ||
Afghanistan | Palestine 59 , 60 , Iraq 61 , 62 , Jordan 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , Pakistan [67] | |
Algeria | Malek et al. [68] , Algeria STEPs Survey [69] | |
Egypt | Egypt STEPs survey [70] | |
Iraq | Iraq Family Health Survey 2006/7 [61] , Iraq STEPs survey [62] | |
Islamic Republic of Iran | Esteghamati et al. [71] , Iran STEPs survey
Third national Surveillance of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases (SuRFNCD-2007) in Iran: methods and results on prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, obesity, central obesity, and dyslipidemia. BMC Public Health. 2009; 9: 167 [72] | |
Morocco | Tazi et al. [73] | |
Pakistan | Shera et al. [67] | |
Saudi Arabia | Al-Daghri et al. [74] , Al-Nozha et al. [75] , Warsy and El-Hazmi[76] , Al-Nuaim [77] , Saudi Arabia STEPs Survey [78] | |
Sudan | Tunisia [79] , Morocco [73] , Egypt [70] | |
Syrian Arab Republic | Palestine 59 , 60 , Iraq 61 , 62 , Jordan 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , Pakistan [67] | |
Tunisia | Bouguerra et al. [79] | |
United Arab Emirates | Malik et al. [80] | |
Yemen | Palestine 59 , 60 , Iraq 61 , 62 , Jordan 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , Pakistan [67] | |
North America and Caribbean (NAC) | ||
Canada | National Diabetes Surveillance System [81] | |
Mexico | ENSANUT 2012 [82] | |
United States of America | NHANES 2012 [83] | |
South and Central America (SACA) | ||
Argentina | de Sereday et al. [84] , Escobedo et al. [85] | |
Brazil | Iser et al. [86] | |
Chile | Encuesta Nacional de Salud 2009–2011 [87] | |
Colombia | Colombia STEPs survey – Santander [88] | |
Cuba | Dominican Republic [89] , Colombia [88] , Brazil [86] , Costa Rica 90 , 91 , Venezuela [85] | |
Ecuador | Escobedo et al. [85] | |
Guatemala | CAMDi Guatemala [90] | |
Peru | Escobedo et al. [85] | |
Venezuela | Escobedo et al. [85] | |
South-East Asia (SEA) | ||
Bangladesh | Bangladesh STEPs Survey [92] | |
India | Anjana et al. [93]
Prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance) in urban and rural India: phase I results of the Indian Council of Medical Research-INdia DIABetes (ICMR-INDIAB) study. Diabetologia. 2011; 54: 3022-3027 | |
Nepal | Mehta et al. [94] , Ono et al. [95] , Singh and Bhattarai [96] | |
Sri Lanka | Katulanda et al. [97] , Wijewardene et al. [98] | |
Western Pacific (WP) | ||
Australia | Australia Health Survey 2011 [99] | |
Cambodia | Cambodia STEPs Survey [100] | |
China | Li et al. [101] , Yang et al. [102] | |
Democratic People's Republic of Korea | Cambodia [100] , Viet Nam [103] , Myanmar [104] | |
Indonesia | Mihardja et al. [105] | |
Japan | Japan National Health Survey [106] | |
Malaysia | Letchuman et al. [107] , Malaysia STEPs survey [108] , Rampal et al. [109] | |
Myanmar | Ko-Ko-Zaw et al. [104] | |
Philippines | Sy et al. [110] | |
Republic of Korea | Choi et al. [111] , Kim et al. [112] | |
Taiwan | Chang et al. [113] | |
Viet Nam | Nguyen et al. [103] |
Region | 2013 | 2035 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population (20–79 years) | Number of people with diabetes (20–79 years) | Comparative diabetes prevalence (20–79 years) | Population (20–79 years) | Number of people with diabetes (20–79 years) | Comparative diabetes prevalence (20–79 years) | Increase in the number of people with diabetes | |
Millions | Millions | % | Millions | Millions | % | % | |
AFR | 407.8 | 19.8 | 5.7 | 775.5 | 41.4 | 6.0 | 109.1 |
EUR | 658.7 | 56.3 | 6.8 | 668.7 | 68.9 | 7.1 | 22.4 |
MENA | 347.5 | 34.6 | 10.9 | 583.7 | 67.9 | 11.3 | 96.2 |
NAC | 334.9 | 36.7 | 9.6 | 404.5 | 50.4 | 12.3 | 37.3 |
SACA | 300.5 | 24.1 | 8.2 | 394.2 | 38.5 | 8.2 | 59.8 |
SEA | 883.2 | 72.1 | 8.7 | 1216.9 | 123.0 | 9.4 | 70.6 |
WP | 1613.2 | 138.2 | 8.1 | 1818.2 | 201.8 | 8.4 | 46.0 |
World | 4572.9 | 381.8 | 8.3 | 5861.7 | 591.9 | 8.8 | 55.0 |

2013 | 2035 | ||
---|---|---|---|
Country/territory | % | Country/territory | % |
Top 10 countries/territories for prevalence (%) of diabetes (20–79 years), 2013 and 2035 | |||
Tokelau | 37.5 | Tokelau | 37.9 |
Federated States of Micronesia | 35.0 | Federated States of Micronesia | 35.1 |
Marshall Islands | 34.9 | Marshall Islands | 35.0 |
Kiribati | 28.8 | Kiribati | 28.9 |
Cook Islands | 25.7 | Cook Islands | 25.7 |
Vanuatu | 24.0 | Saudi Arabia | 24.5 |
Saudi Arabia | 24.0 | Vanuatu | 24.2 |
Nauru | 23.3 | Nauru | 23.3 |
Kuwait | 23.1 | Kuwait | 23.2 |
Qatar | 22.9 | Qatar | 22.8 |
2013 | 2035 | ||
Country/territory | Millions | Country/territory | Millions |
Top 10 countries/territories of number of people with diabetes (20–79 years), 2013 and 2035 | |||
China | 98.4 | China | 142.7 |
India | 65.1 | India | 109.0 |
United States of America | 24.4 | United States of America | 29.7 |
Brazil | 11.9 | Brazil | 19.2 |
Russian Federation | 10.9 | Mexico | 15.7 |
Mexico | 8.7 | Indonesia | 14.1 |
Indonesia | 8.5 | Egypt | 13.1 |
Germany | 7.6 | Pakistan | 12.8 |
Egypt | 7.5 | Turkey | 11.8 |
Japan | 7.2 | Russian Federation | 11.1 |
4. Discussion
World Bank. Country and Lending Groups, Available from: http://data.worldbank.org/about/countryclassifications/country-and-lending-groups [cited 17.09.13].[Internet].
Conflict of interest
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Supplementary data
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